Scrapping Northern leg of HS2 would make UK an international laughing stock and leave ‘bleeding stump’ of a line
Stopping HS2 at Birmingham would mean failing the North of England and the country as a whole, and slashing the economic benefits of the project by three quarters since it was first proposed, Campaign for Better Transport has warned.
Continuing the line north is essential to Northern Powerhouse Rail, and to unlocking capacity on the West Coast Mainline.
Responding to news that the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is now considering ditching the northern leg of the project, which would have taken the line north from Birmingham to Crewe and onto Manchester, Norman Baker, from Campaign for Better Transport, said:
“Lopping off the northern leg of HS2 at this late stage would be a disaster for the rail network and leave us with a bleeding stump of a line from Old Oak Common to Birmingham. We would be left with a London-to-Manchester high speed line that does not go to either London or Manchester! This would do untold damage to the UK’s reputation as the birthplace of the railways. We currently have a paltry 67 miles of high speed track in the UK, compared to thousands in mainland Europe. France alone has nearly 2,000 miles and is building more, at a fraction of the price.”
Analysis by the transport charity has found that since the project was first planned, the benefit-cost ratio has fallen with every reduction in scope. The initial appraisal of HS2 found that the project would generate a benefit worth £1.30 for every £1 spent. To scrap the Birmingham-Manchester section of the line would reduce the benefits generated to only 20p for every £1 spent. This would mean the economic benefits of the project would have plummeted by more than three quarters since it was first proposed.
Claims that the Birmingham to Manchester route is being scrapped in favour of the Northern Powerhouse Rail scheme have also been criticised by Campaign for Better Transport, as the Northern Powerhouse Rail project includes 50 miles of the new high-speed line.
And the transport charity is also warning that ending HS2 at Birmingham will not solve capacity issues on the West Coast Mainline, which the Department for Transport has described as being “at breaking point” with passengers subjected to regular overcrowding. It would also mean insufficient freight paths for a growing rail market. And it would mean that ‘open access operators’ are not able to run services on the West Coast mainline as there simply isn’t the space. Open access operators, like Lumo and Hull trains, which run services on the East Coast mainline where there are no such capacity issues, have been key in improving passenger experiences, providing more choice and delivering lower fares. As a result, rail has overtaken aviation as the primary mode of transport between London and Edinburgh.
Mr Baker said; “HS2 is absolutely key to unlocking capacity on the West Coast Mainline and delivering Northern Powerhouse Rail. Without the northern leg of HS2 to Manchester, dire overcrowding on the West Coast Mainline will continue and the Leeds to Liverpool line will also be in jeopardy. Ditching the Northern leg would not just be a serious blow to the North of England and its people, but to the country as a whole.
“The Government must not only commit to taking HS2 all the way to Manchester, it must also look to reinstate the truncated Eastern leg to Leeds, where the potential economic benefits have been shown to be immense. We urge the Prime Minister to think again.”
Mr Baker added: “In addition, we need an independent inquiry into how the project has been handled and how the costs have been allowed to spiral out of control so this can never happen again.”
ENDS
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Notes to Editors
- High Speed 2 was first proposed in 2010 and Phase 1 of the project (London to Birmingham) was approved in 2012. Phase 2a (Birmingham to Crewe) and Phase 2b (Crewe to Manchester and Leeds) were proposed in 2013 and approved in 2020. Phase 2b was subsequently dropped in 2021. Phase 2a now looks like it may also be dropped, leaving only Phase 1 with some elements of the project, including whether the line will come into central London, in doubt.
- The initial appraisal of HS2 found that the project would generate a benefit worth £1.30 for every £1 spent (a benefit:cost ratio of 2.3:1). The latest Department for Transport figures now say that if the line only runs to Birmingham the project will generate a benefit worth £20p for every £1 spent (a benefit:cost ratio of 1.2:1). This would mean the economic benefits of the project would have plummeted by three quarters since it was first proposed.
Phase Distance (miles) Est. Cost (£bn) Cost per mile (£m) (1) London-West Midlands 140 45 321.4 (2a) West Midlands-Crewe 52 7 135 (2b) Crewe-Manchester 30 22 733 (HS2 East) West Midlands-Leeds 113 12.8 113.3 London-Birmingham with Heathrow Spur 143 46 321.4 London-Manchester & Leeds 363 86.8 239 London-Crewe 196 52 265.3 London-Manchester Without Eastern Leg 222 74 333 - The Guardian (26 September) reported the disparity between the amount of high-speed track in the UK (108km) and that in France (almost 3,000km), Germany (about 1,500km), and Spain (almost 4,000km). A 2016 Government report, the High speed rail international benchmarking study, found that “high speed rail lines can be delivered under certain circumstances at an average cost of £32m per km, based on data from 20 European comparator projects.”
- The Department for Transport’s Full Business Case for High Speed 2 Phase One, published April 2020, says the West Coast Main Line “is at breaking point and unable to cope with the growth in the demand”.
- The West Coast Main Line Capacity Assessment 2020 concluded that ‘there is no available capacity without significantly impacting performance and causing a reduction in timetable resilience’.
- Government passenger data for the West Coast mainline shows that passenger numbers had reached 96% of pre-Covid levels in quarters two and three of this year, with the figures continuing to climb.
- The Northern Powerhouse Rail project includes a mix of new and upgraded lines to speed up links between Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds. It uses a 50 mile section of the HS2 line from Manchester Airport to Manchester Piccadilly, as well as the planned upgrades to Manchester Piccadilly station as part of the HS2 project.
- Campaign for Better Transport was founded as Transport 2000 on 6 February 1973. 2023 marks its 50th year of campaigning for all communities to have access to high quality, sustainable transport that meets their needs, improves quality of life and protects the environment. Campaign for Better Transport Charitable Trust is a registered charity (1101929) which operates in England and Wales.
