Is 2024 the year for rail reform?
This week saw the annual George Bradshaw address, always a hotly anticipated event in the rail industry calendar, featuring this year both the current rail minister Huw Merriman, and the contender to the crown Stephen Morgan, Shadow Rail Minister. The address itself was a well-choreographed piece of theatre with a tacit acknowledgement from those in attendance that the rail baton may be about to be passed on this year.
Thanks to a piece of perfect public relations timing, the Rail Minister was at last able to announce that the long-awaited Draft Rail Reform Bill which will provide the legislation needed to establish of Great British Railways (GBR), the proposed state-owned body that will oversee rail in Britain, including the management of cost and revenue, had finally been published and will now pass to the next stage on route to Royal Assent. Of course, we welcomed the publication of the draft Bill, but we share in the collective frustration that it has taken four years to produce this draft bill, with little chance of its passage to law within this parliamentary term.
With a potential change in management on the cards thanks to a general election this year, we may find in effect find that the Bill as is becomes redundant. Labour’s plan for the railway leans more towards a model of national ownership, but clarity on how that might look, how it would differ from the plan for GBR, and if they are planning to completely redraw the Bill, particularly as they have no plans to impact the Rolling Stock Companies which sit at the heart of the modern model of deregulated rail operations, are yet to be determined.
Whatever type of railway eventually emerges from the reforms it must be sure to prioritise passengers. Without passengers willing and able to board trains there is no passenger rail network. Whilst many of the changes either party wishes to introduce require legislation, and therefore for the Rail Reform Bill to become an Act of Parliament, there are things that the Government can do now without legislation which could provide passengers with immediate improvements. The Government has alreday committed to introducing pay-as-you-go ticketing to more than 90 stations in the West Midlands and Greater Manchester next year which is a great start, but we’d like to see them take some more of the recommendations from our A fare future for rail: a blueprint for fares and ticketing reform report to provide passengers with ticketing improvements now.
Another thing that must be a feature of any future reforms are changes to the way rolling stock, i.e. the trains themselves, are procured with a consistent rolling stock pipeline developed. Current uncertainty in this area and a lumpy pattern of orders has plagued the industry for decades and, as well as being emblematic of the need for better long-term thinking, the supply chain and manufacturing industry has profound implications for jobs and communities. It is fantastic news therefore to have the new Piccadilly Line trains being built in Goole but worrying for major train factories to be at risk of closure, particularly in Derby, past and potentially future heart of the rail industry.
So let us be cautiously optimistic. If the current administration remain in power there could be a genuine prospect of rail reform in the next King’s Speech. If Labour win the general election, as seems more likely if polls are to be believed, time will tell what reform looks like to them. As always, we will be offering our guidance and have contributed to the independent Rail and Urban Transport Review, commissioned by Labour and being led by Jurgen Maier. Will the Williams-Shapps Plan be superseded by the Maier-Morgan Masterplan? Only time will tell.
